Grayscale’s head of research Zach Pandl published a note Wednesday arguing that Bitcoin’s bear market may already be over, conditional on the Federal Reserve forgoing further rate hikes. The firm rejects the traditional four-year cycle framework, which would predict a bottom in September or October with an average 80% drawdown, favoring instead a view of Bitcoin as a macroeconomic asset. Bitcoin is currently trading around $65,000, up more than 10% from its early-July low of $57,717, while spot ETFs have logged nearly $1 billion in net inflows over seven straight sessions. The Fed announces its next rate decision in six days, and the Clarity Act faces an August 7 Senate deadline, with both events framed by Grayscale as the main price catalysts for Bitcoin in the coming weeks.
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