Bitcoin briefly topped $82,000 on September 3, pushing above its 50-week moving average currently around $81,800. According to Galaxy Research, this reclaim has marked the end of four comparable bear markets out of five, with the sole exception being 2021-2022 when Bitcoin briefly reclaimed this level twice before falling to a fresh low. The current bear market peaked at $124,800 in October 2025 and bottomed near $58,500 at the end of June, representing an approximately 53% decline. Multiple frameworks (Galaxy, Glassnode, 21Shares) converge on a key zone between $81,000 and $86,000 where significant selling pressure from long-term holders could derail the relief rally. Without a confirmed weekly close above the 50-week moving average and sustained absorption of supply above $83,000, Bitcoin risks sliding toward the $62,000-$65,000 zone, replicating the bearish 2021-2022 scenario.
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