The U.S. job market is sending mixed signals in 2025. July hiring is expected to reach nearly 98,000 jobs, a rebound from June’s disappointing 57,000, itself hurt by high interest rates and policy uncertainty under President Donald Trump. The unemployment rate stands at 4.2 percent, the lowest in a year, but 27.5 percent of job seekers have been out of work for over six months. Workers who changed jobs saw a 7 percent year-over-year raise, compared to 4.4 percent for those staying put. According to a Federal Reserve study, the break-even hiring rate needed to keep unemployment stable has fallen from 155,000 to near zero, due to baby boomer retirements and immigration crackdowns.
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