American and Russian finance ministers have engaged in discussions regarding a potential peace plan for Ukraine. This development comes amid the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which began with Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. The United States has been acting as a mediator in these diplomatic efforts, although no decisive military breakthrough or consistent peace negotiations have been achieved so far. Markets reflect a modest increase in ceasefire expectations, with the probability rising from 18% to 19.5% for a resolution by December 31, 2026. No confirmation from Tier 1 sources has been obtained at this stage.
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