Real-time data platform Truflation estimates US inflation at 2.33% annualized for September 2026, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics published a Consumer Price Index of 3.4% for August 2026. This gap of over one percentage point stems from different methodologies: Truflation processes between 13 and 35 million daily price points from actual transactions, compared to approximately 80,000 survey data points for the BLS. Truflation’s data arrives on average 41 days ahead of official BLS figures, with a correlation of 0.955 between the two series. Founded by Stefan Rust and launched in December 2021 following a challenge from investor Balaji Srinivasan, the company raised $6 million in early 2024 and counts Cathie Wood of Ark Invest among its notable contacts. If Truflation’s reading proves closer to reality, it would mean the US economy is already near the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, which could significantly impact monetary policy expectations.
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