Rising oil, gas, and diesel prices, driven by the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine, are prompting central banks and governments to reassess the economic impacts of ongoing geopolitical tensions. Brent crude surpassed $100 per barrel, indicating tighter energy conditions as markets react to these developments. The elevated prices create an environment where central banks may face challenges in managing inflation without altering interest rates. Market pricing indicates only a 1.8% probability of crude oil reaching a new all-time high by September 30, while the likelihood of no Fed rate cuts in 2026 remains high at 93.5%.
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