Iran announced it conducted a defensive strike against US vessels and bases, claiming recent US actions threaten regional security. This escalation marks a significant development in the ongoing US-Iran conflict, which began in February 2026. Iran’s characterization of the strike as defensive aligns with its historical narrative of presenting military actions as responses to perceived threats. The market now prices a 30% probability of full Iranian airspace closure by December 31. Market participants are closely monitoring statements from Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization and President Donald Trump for signs of de-escalation or further military engagement.
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