FOMC September 2026 rate hike odds have surpassed 50%, with the CME FedWatch tool showing nearly 56% probability for a 25-basis-point increase at the September 16 meeting. This repricing followed Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s keynote at the Jackson Hole symposium, which shifted unchanged-rate odds from nearly 70% to below 50%. Bitcoin and crypto markets have not yet demonstrated a confirmed price response to the revised expectations. Short-term Treasury yields did react immediately, with the 2-year yield reaching its highest level since late July.
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