The European Central Bank is expected to raise its key interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, September 10, bringing the deposit rate to 2.50%. This decision aims to curb inflation in the eurozone, which reached 3.3% in August 2026, its highest level since September 2023, driven notably by surging energy prices. For France, which needs to borrow 310 billion euros this year, this rate hike could not come at a worse time: 30-year rates have hit a record 4.90%, the highest since 2008, while the OAT-Bund spread stands at 84.7 basis points, reflecting a growing risk premium. France’s debt interest burden, already at 38 billion euros in 2022, could exceed 70 billion euros by 2027 and potentially reach 90 billion euros by 2030. The main risk for markets lies in a synchronized monetary tightening between the ECB and the US Federal Reserve, whose meeting is scheduled for September 15-16, with more than 60% probability of a rate hike according to the FedWatch tool.
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