Iran’s Supreme National Security Council has announced plans to establish a restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit chokepoint. This decision comes amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and a fragile ceasefire in the region. Market participants interpret this move as a sign of heightened tensions, which could impact the likelihood of a U.S.-Iran agreement to restore normal traffic through the waterway by the September 15 deadline. Current odds for such an agreement by September 15 stand at just 2.8%, reflecting market concerns over escalating restrictions in the region.
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