The 10-year US Treasury yield hit 4.75% on August 18, 2026, its highest level since early 2025, and is now approaching the January 2025 peak of 4.809% and the October 2023 high of 5.021%. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone at the Jackson Hole symposium while core PCE inflation stood at 3.3% year-over-year in July, well above the Fed’s 2% target. The Iran conflict since late February 2026 has added a persistent risk premium to energy markets, with yields rising approximately 0.8 percentage points from their February 2026 low of 3.95%. The US fiscal deficit has expanded to an estimated 6% of GDP, pushing investors to demand higher yields to absorb growing government debt supply. The US Treasury has more than doubled long-end buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation to support bond prices, but this intervention remains a garden hose against a bonfire as global macro forces continue pushing yields higher.
Source: Read the original article
