Polymarket traders price the probability of House impeachment of Donald Trump before his term ends at roughly 68%, while the same outcome limited to before December 31, 2026 is priced at only around 2%, a 33-fold spread between the two contracts. Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both chambers, explaining the low 2% price for the short-dated contract. The 68% figure prices in a compounded bet: Democrats retaking the House in the 2026 midterms, followed by a floor vote on impeachment articles within roughly two years. Both contracts resolve on House passage alone by simple majority and make no prediction about Senate conviction or removal, which requires a two-thirds supermajority.
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