Prediction markets are facing a legal showdown between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and state regulators, a conflict that could force the Supreme Court to intervene by the end of next year. In April, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit ruled in favor of Kalshi in its dispute with New Jersey, finding that federal commodities law overrides state gambling laws. Several cases are currently on appeal in the Second, Third, and Ninth Circuits, and a circuit split would almost certainly prompt Supreme Court intervention. Flip Pidot, Chief Strategy Officer at PredictIt, expects a Supreme Court ruling by June if the Court chooses to hear one of these cases.
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