The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting indicate that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, with some officials supporting rate hikes. The Fed maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% while acknowledging that inflation remains above its 2% target. Concerns persist regarding financial stability linked to AI-driven investment demand and leverage. Markets now price a 40.5% probability of a rate hike by October, up from 38% the previous day, while the likelihood of a rate cut remains below 1%.
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