Iran believes three military pilots missing since a March operation are being held captive. The Iranian foreign ministry announced its intention to pursue the matter through legal and international channels, despite ongoing diplomatic negotiations with Qatar. Tehran has expressed heightened concern for the pilots’ safety and warned of possible military escalation if diplomatic efforts fail. Markets have taken note of this stance, with probabilities for a full Iranian airspace closure set at 5.5% by August 31 and 29.5% by December 31.
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