US claims Middle East oil flows rebound to 15M bpd amid scrutiny from independent trackers

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US Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced on August 12 that oil flows from the Middle East and Gulf region have recovered to approximately 15 million barrels per day, representing about 75% of pre-conflict levels. This estimate breaks down into roughly 9 million bpd transiting the Strait of Hormuz and 5 to 7 million bpd flowing through upgraded pipelines and alternative export facilities. However, commercial vessel-tracking services estimate actual Hormuz transits at between 4 and 8 million bpd, well below the 9 million cited by Wright for that strait alone. The definitive answer is expected from destination arrival data, anticipated within approximately six weeks. Rystad Energy had estimated that peak shut-in production reached 11.7 million bpd during the most intense phase of hostilities.

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