The 60-day deadline for the United States and Iran to reach a final nuclear agreement has passed without a deal, raising tensions across the Middle East. This lack of progress comes amid an ongoing conflict that escalated into open warfare earlier this year, held in check by a fragile ceasefire maintained through indirect diplomacy facilitated by regional mediators. Implied probabilities of a deal remain extremely low, with 0.1% by August 18, 2026, 0.9% by August 31, and 3.6% by September 30, all trending downward. Statements from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and U.S. President Donald J. Trump continue to shape market expectations regarding a potential resumption of negotiations.
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