Tariff refunds are juicing corporate profits and GDP as more tailwinds converge to propel growth to a blistering 4.3% pace, top economist says

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The Trump administration has returned more than $100 billion to U.S. businesses and importers that paid its global tariffs. Forty companies in the S&P 500 have recorded $9.6 billion in refunds, with Apple being the top recipient at nearly $2.2 billion. Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok estimates that these refunds will contribute about 0.2 percentage point to third-quarter GDP growth, which the Atlanta Fed is tracking at 4.3%, after only 1.5% in the second quarter. Other positively oriented factors are supporting the U.S. economy, including the AI spending boom, tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and the reshoring of U.S. manufacturing. Some consumers have filed lawsuits to demand a share of these funds, but companies such as Amazon, FedEx and UPS have vowed to return the refunds to their customers.

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