From June 16 to July 22, 2026, Polymarket ran seven contracts on Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returning to normal, each with a different deadline. On June 16, the market priced a 90.5% chance of normalization by year-end and 57.5% by July 31. The four nearest deadlines, June 15, end of June, July 7 and July 15, each fell to the 0.1% floor, in deadline order. At the final tick on July 22, the three remaining deadlines were trading at 1.25% for July 31, 13.5% for August 31, and 53.5% for December 31. The market progressively priced the disruption as permanent rather than temporary, with the deadline ladder collapsing from the near end.
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