The International Energy Agency (IEA) is warning that the oil supply disruption unfolding in 2026 could rival the most severe crises in history. The Strait of Hormuz, which normally carried roughly 20 million barrels per day, saw flows collapse to just 2.7 million barrels per day between March and May, a drop of more than 85 percent. Global oil supply is projected to decline by 3.7 to 3.9 million barrels per day this year, landing at approximately 102.2 to 102.6 million barrels per day, and global stockpiles lost 129 million barrels in March alone followed by another 117 million in April. Cumulative supply losses from Gulf producers have now exceeded 1 billion barrels, which the IEA has described as the largest supply disruption it has ever recorded. If transit through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes and regional de-escalation holds, supply could rebound by 7.5 to 8 million barrels per day entering 2027.
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