Iran and the United States have issued conflicting statements regarding the status of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. Tehran indicates that no final agreement has been reached with Washington on opening the Strait fully or on toll-free passage for ships, while U.S. officials assert that passage remains free and unencumbered. Market pricing reflects these developments, with the probability of traffic normalization by August 31 declining to 9.5%, down from 12% the previous day. The likelihood of a U.S.-Iran agreement by mid-August has also fallen, dropping from 40% to 27.5%.
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