U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has stated that a 30- to 60-day ceasefire agreement with Iran could be finalized soon, potentially within the next day. This deal could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime passage for global energy trade. Negotiations are ongoing and still require approval from both sides. Markets now price a 39.5% probability of a deal by August 15, down from previous levels. The next official statements from the U.S. and Iranian governments, as well as the involvement of President Trump and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, will be crucial in determining the outcome of these negotiations.
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