China imported approximately 12 million metric tons of US soybeans between early 2025 and mid-January 2026 to fulfill commitments under the trade truce reached in October 2025. State-owned firms Sinograin and COFCO drove most of these purchases, but Chinese private importers quickly shifted toward Brazilian suppliers once initial targets were reached, booking at least 25 cargoes for March-April shipment by late January 2026. US soybean export projections to China for 2025 came in at around 18 million metric tons, roughly 33% below 2024 levels. The US has secured pledges for China to import at least 25 million metric tons annually between 2026 and 2028, with a 57% year-over-year increase in US exports to China during Q1 2026.
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