Speculators on prediction market platform Kalshi now assign a two-in-three probability that the S&P 500 will cross the 8,000 mark in 2026. As of Wednesday’s close, the index sits just 3.6% below that level, after rallying more than 5.5% over four sessions. This rally was driven by several catalysts: easing tensions between the United States and Iran in the Middle East, a strong earnings season, and the near-collapse of Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness fund. Analysts view this reset as healthy rather than the end of the artificial intelligence-driven bull market. On Kalshi, traders also assign a one-in-three chance that the index will exceed 8,200 this year.
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