Large crypto holders are sending mixed signals: XRP whales keep buying the dip since January, but ether — the only major asset trading below its realized price — shows the clearest capitulation setup, according to CryptoQuant.
🔑 Key takeaways
- XRP whales are buying in the $1.00-$1.20 range since the January peak (~$2.40), without halting the slide
- Ether at ~$1,900 trades below its realized price of ~$2,450: holders are sitting on latent losses
- Bitcoin at ~$64,640 remains ~17% above its $52,900 realized price
- Wallets holding 10,000 to 100,000 ETH jumped from ~14M (mid-2025) to a record ~19.6M
- Julio Moreno (CryptoQuant) says the bear market is in its final phase, but the bottom is not yet confirmed
XRP: silent accumulation without real support
Large XRP holders have not stopped buying during the slide. Between the January peak around $2.40 and the current $1.00-$1.20 range, average spot order size has remained in what CryptoQuant calls « whale territory » throughout 2026. Average spot order size on XRP has thus stayed structurally elevated, a sign of persistent engagement from the largest wallets.
Yet this accumulation has not been enough to reverse the trend. The 90-day cumulative taker volume delta — which measures the aggressiveness of buyers versus sellers — has returned to neutral after a start of the year where takers were clearly dominant. According to CryptoQuant, this configuration describes « silent absorption » and a basing phase rather than capitulation or a confirmed breakdown. In short: whales are absorbing supply, but no sufficient buying pressure is materializing to reignite price.
Ether: the only one below its cost basis
Ether currently trades around $1,900, against a realized price of approximately $2,450. The realized price corresponds to the average acquisition cost of all tokens in circulation, computed directly on-chain. The aggregate cost basis of all holders therefore sits above the spot price, meaning the overwhelming majority of holders are sitting on latent paper losses.
This situation is unique among the three major assets. Bitcoin, at approximately $64,640, trades ~17% above its $52,900 realized price, while XRP, at roughly $1.10, sits above its $0.75 realized price. Only ether has truly crossed the line into technical capitulation.
« Large holders are increasing their positions in bitcoin, ether and XRP, suggesting that the bear market has entered its final phase — but the bottom has not been confirmed yet and prices could still fall further. »
Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant
ETH holder structure: concentration and retreat
Cohort data on ether (wallet groups sorted by size) show opposing dynamics. The cohort of wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH rose from approximately 14 million in mid-2025 to all-time highs near 19.6 million. Conversely, the 1,000-10,000 ETH cohort peaked at roughly 15.6 million in January 2026 before falling back to approximately 12.9 million.
| ETH cohort | Mid-2025 | January 2026 | May 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10,000 to 100,000 ETH | ~14.0M | — | ~19.6M (record) | ↗ accumulation |
| 100,000 ETH and above | ~2.6M | — | ~4.6M | ↗ +~1.8M |
| 1,000 to 10,000 ETH | — | ~15.6M | ~12.9M | ↘ retreat |
The largest cohort (100,000 ETH and above) had bottomed at around 2.6 million in mid-2025 before climbing back to roughly 4.6 million in May 2026, an addition of about 1.8 million ETH according to CryptoQuant. Selling pressure is therefore coming mainly from the middle bracket, while the largest wallets are progressively restructuring their positions. The migration of capital toward the biggest pockets reflects a search for long-term conviction, typical of the late stages of a bear cycle.
Bitcoin: late-stage whale accumulation, bottom not confirmed
Bitcoin whales, excluding exchange addresses and mining pools, had bottomed out at approximately 2.87 million BTC in December 2025 and now hold around 3.06 million BTC. The most active purchases occurred when price fell below $60,000 in June. Despite this rebound, cumulative holdings remain roughly 170,000 BTC below the 2025 bull market peak near 3.23 million BTC.
| Asset | Spot price | Realized price | Gap vs realized price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | ~$64,640 | ~$52,900 | ~+17% |
| Ether | ~$1,900 | ~$2,450 | ~-22% |
| XRP | ~$1.10 | ~$0.75 | ~+47% |
CryptoQuant characterizes this phase as the last leg of the decline, while stressing that valuations still leave room for further downside before a bottom is confirmed. Historically, when prices approach or slip below the realized price, large holders have increased their positions and reduced selling pressure — a pattern that appears to be repeating in 2026.
Conclusion: ether below cost basis is the metric to watch
Ether remains the central variable to monitor over the coming months. It is the only one of the three major assets where the market has already capitulated on paper, with the aggregate cost basis sitting above the spot price. CryptoQuant notes that ether bottomed out in early 2025 at a comparable level and distance relative to its lower valuation band, making it a useful precedent to calibrate the current cycle’s potential bottom.
According to Julio Moreno, the risk-reward ratio has materially compressed — meaning potential downside is now limited relative to the upside in the event of a reversal. Still, valuations retain room for further downside. The convergence between whale accumulation and taker-delta stabilization will constitute the technical trigger for any potential trend reversal; its absence would keep the market in a prolonged basing phase without a clear directional trend.
Sources
This article is published for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research (DYOR) before making any decision.
