Former New York Republican congressman George Santos was penalized by the CFTC for betting against his own presence at Trump’s State of the Union address. After publicly declaring he would attend, he wagered on his absence through the Kalshi platform and pocketed over $17,500. The market assigned roughly 75% probability to his attendance. When he failed to show, he blamed a weather-related airport delay. The platform detected the discrepancy between his public statements and trading activity, froze his account, and escalated the matter to regulators. In July 2026, Santos agreed to pay $35,000, including forfeiture of his profits, and received a three-year ban from prediction markets.
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