Former President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran, demanding either a deal or surrender, accompanied by the threat of a U.S. blockade. The ultimatum escalates tensions in the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil traffic. Markets currently assign a 55.5% probability to the blockade ending by August 31. The U.S. and Israel have temporarily halted new attacks while negotiations continue.
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