The CLARITY Act enters its final week before the Senate’s August recess with no vote scheduled, leaving cryptocurrency regulation in limbo. Prediction markets put the odds of the bill becoming law this year at roughly 30%, backed by about $3.7 million in Polymarket trading volume. Procedural hurdles require 60 votes to advance, but Republicans hold only 53 seats, forcing the party to secure at least seven Democratic or independent votes. Two main disputes threaten passage: Democratic concerns over ethics language that could still allow Trump and senior officials to profit from existing crypto ventures, and bank opposition to stablecoin rewards that critics say resemble deposit interest. If no vote occurs by August 7, the fight shifts to September when government funding and midterm campaigning will further crowd the Senate calendar.
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