Iran has executed Arvin Khahreh in Shahrud, an act widely interpreted as a sign of the regime’s fear of its own population. The protests, which began in December 2025, have escalated significantly, with the government resorting to live fire, mass arrests and executions to suppress widespread dissent. Market indicators reflect this concern: the probability of a leadership change by December 31, 2026 is priced at 22.5%, while the chance of having no head of state at all stands at 7.8%. Khahreh’s execution illustrates the regime’s intimidation strategy, as its stability appears increasingly fragile to observers.
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