Polymarket users are pricing in a 61% probability of Hamas disarmament by December 31, 2026. This estimate, backed by nearly $3 million in volume, surged after Donald Trump announced on July 30 a US-brokered peace deal with Hamas and other armed factions in Gaza. The peace framework includes a 15-point roadmap covering weapons decommissioning, transfer of authority to a technocratic national committee, and international verification mechanisms. Hamas has expressed conditional acceptance tied to Israeli withdrawal, while Israel has yet to respond officially.
Source: Read the original article
