The war in Iran began on February 28. A memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 opened a 60-day negotiating period over the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions and Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, but it unraveled within weeks. The U.S. resumed strikes for 13 consecutive nights before pausing on July 24, only for fighting to resume the following day. Iran’s opaque power structure, spanning the Supreme Leader, the Revolutionary Guards, civilian government and various factions, poses a major challenge to any ceasefire negotiation. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps exercises considerable operational autonomy and answers directly to the Supreme Leader, making any agreement potentially difficult to enforce. This week’s attacks attributed to Iran-aligned Iraqi militias on Saudi oil facilities and to Yemen’s Houthis on pipeline infrastructure illustrate how Iran-sympathetic groups could widen the conflict.
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