Former U.S. President Donald Trump announced a « historic » disarmament deal involving Hamas amid ongoing US-Iran tensions. The agreement could shift dynamics in the Israel-Hamas conflict beyond the previous ceasefire arrangement and alter security arrangements in Gaza. Prediction markets now estimate a 38% probability of a US-Iran meeting by August 31, 2026. The reactions of Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be closely monitored.
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