About 80% of global merchandise trade by volume moves by sea, making strategic corridors like the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea and the Black Sea vulnerable to attacks by drones and missiles. In the Black Sea, roughly 25% of Russia’s grain exports and 25% to 30% of its oil exports could be disrupted, while Ukraine has degraded about one-third of Russia’s Black Sea fleet since 2022. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is now running at roughly half its normal flow, with insurers significantly raising war risk premiums. The Panama Canal is already emerging as the next potential geopolitical flashpoint, as shipping companies reassess routes and build buffer inventories to mitigate ongoing disruptions.
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