Polymarket, the decentralized prediction platform, is pricing a 53% probability that the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points at the September 2026 FOMC meeting. SOFR futures, the Wall Street benchmark, imply only a 32% probability, a gap of roughly 20 percentage points between the two markets. This divergence represents an arbitrage opportunity for traders, though the technical mechanics and basis risks make the trade complex to execute. For crypto markets, this divergence is significant: Bitcoin and other risk assets have become highly correlated with Fed policy expectations.
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