US customs revenue turned negative in June 2026, with a net balance of -$25.6 billion, the first time in the country’s fiscal history. This situation stems from the Supreme Court’s February 2026 ruling invalidating tariffs imposed under IEEPA, triggering a massive wave of refunds estimated at roughly $166 billion, representing approximately three-quarters of all tariff revenue collected between April 2025 and February 2026. The government must now return the bulk of what it collected to importers, deepening an already substantial budget deficit. On crypto markets, this concrete fiscal deterioration reinforces the thesis that quantitative easing could intensify, benefiting hard-capped assets like bitcoin. The next monthly customs revenue prints, particularly for July and August, will be decisive in confirming this trend.
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