The United States announced a ceasefire against Iran, but prediction markets remain skeptical about its durability. A Polymarket contract requiring a continuous 14-day period without US strikes on Iranian territory dropped from around 60% to 53%. The US and Iran had observed the ceasefire for three days by Monday after thirteen consecutive nights of US strikes, but President Trump warned military action could resume if diplomacy fails. Iran denied that direct negotiations were taking place, stating that mediators were only carrying messages. Most of the money bet on another contract expects formal high-level talks between the two countries to be delayed until after July 31.
Source: Read the original article
