An attack on a U.S. military base in Jordan has ended a temporary pause in hostilities involving Iran, reigniting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This escalation has triggered a rise in oil prices, with markets anticipating potential disruptions to supply routes, particularly through the critical Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global oil production passes. Market participants are now pricing in a risk premium on crude oil, with forecasts suggesting WTI crude could reach $130 per barrel by July 2026. The renewed conflict could also lead to new all-time highs in oil prices by September 2026, according to market indicators.
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