Citadel Securities expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its Wednesday meeting. The firm anticipates a 25 basis point increase, defying the market consensus favoring a hold. Frank Flight, head of macro strategy at Citadel, explained in a client note that traders have not fully priced in the hawkish turn at the central bank. Odds of a rate hike have reached 37.9% according to CME FedWatch, up from 25.7% the previous week. Prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket put the same probability at 28% and 27.5% respectively, with trading volumes exceeding 45 million and 107 million dollars.
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