As of July 25, traders on the CFTC-regulated prediction market Kalshi were betting on a 56% probability that Bitcoin will fall below $55,000 before December 31. This probability has decreased since June 3, when it stood at 66% while Bitcoin was trading in the low-to-mid $64,000 range. The contract is based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index, which tracks minute-by-minute price changes, meaning it resolves the moment Bitcoin touches $55,000, even briefly. Other contracts also reflect bearish sentiment: 43% odds of Bitcoin falling below $50,000 and 33% below $45,000 before year-end.
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