Kevin Warsh, confirmed as Federal Reserve chair in May 2026 after a Senate vote backed largely by Republicans, has made « constructive ambiguity » his unofficial motto heading into the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, deliberately refusing to telegraph his policy intentions. With the federal funds rate sitting at 3.5%-3.75% and markets pricing in roughly a one-in-three chance of a rate hike, the Fed’s balance sheet remains above $6.5 trillion while core inflation stays stubbornly elevated at around 3.8% year-on-year, well above the 2% target. Warsh is considered pro-crypto but has firmly stated that the Fed will not bail out crypto assets or stablecoins, a stance that carries real weight as regulations like the GENIUS Act reshape the digital asset landscape. The combination of a 33% rate hike probability and visible dissent within the FOMC signals significant unpredictability about the Fed’s next move.
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