S&P Global will release the July flash PMIs for the United States on Friday. The Services PMI is expected to decline slightly to 51.0 from 51.2 in June, while the Manufacturing PMI is forecast to rise to 54.5 from 53.9, with both remaining in expansion territory above 50. WTI oil prices have surged nearly 30% in July, fueling expectations of a Fed rate hike before September, with markets pricing in approximately 80% probability. Rabobank analysts caution that the early July PMI signals may not fully capture the latest escalation in Middle East tensions and the recent spike in oil prices.
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