The Trump administration has reinstated a naval blockade against Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime passage. This move is part of a broader strategy to exert economic pressure on Tehran without resorting to military action. The blockade, enforced by U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), targets vessels associated with Iran to disrupt maritime trade. Markets now price a 31.5% probability of the blockade ending by August 31, 2026, compared to 9.5% for an earlier termination by August 15. Any diplomatic breakthrough or major incident in the region could shift these projections significantly.
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