US initial jobless claims came in at 199,000 for the week ending August 1, marking the third consecutive week below the 200,000 threshold. The four-week moving average has fallen to its weakest level since September 2022, when the Fed was still in the early stages of its most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in decades. This resilient labor market complicates expectations for a September rate cut, putting pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin as the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets rises. A stronger US dollar, resulting from the Fed holding rates while other central banks ease, also creates headwinds for Bitcoin and other dollar-denominated crypto assets.
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