U.S. President Donald Trump expressed grave concerns about the potential consequences if Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons amid ongoing military conflicts between the U.S., Israel, and Iran that began in late February 2026. Markets are tracking the likelihood of a U.S.-Iran deal in 2026 that would include reconstruction funding. Current market pricing indicates a 29% probability that Iran reconstruction funding will be included in a deal. Trump’s remarks suggest a decreased likelihood of reaching an agreement, reflecting heightened geopolitical tensions.
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