Peace talks between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have broken down, resulting in the reimposition of sanctions. The situation on the ground has worsened, with both sides engaging in intensified drone and missile attacks. This development comes a year after the Alaska summit, which failed to produce a ceasefire or formal agreement. Markets interpret the escalation and reimposition of sanctions as undermining prospects for a ceasefire agreement by the end of 2026, with prediction-market odds for a ceasefire by the end of August 2026 dropping to 2.6%.
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