Across 90,633 measured Polymarket reactions of two cents or more, the median move took about 80 minutes to reach its peak, and no major category was fast. Geopolitics, the category the speed narrative is built on, took 79.1 minutes, while politics, the fastest, still took 75.1. The 80-minute figure is a conservative floor, as the observation window is capped at 120 minutes and 31.6% of moves peaked in the final 20 minutes. The findings show that prediction markets do not snap to prices instantly but grind toward a new price.
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