Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine remain stalled, with recent diplomatic efforts in Geneva yielding no major breakthrough. The conflict, which began with Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, continues without a clear resolution path, as military actions and domestic political pressures continue to dominate over diplomatic solutions. The probability of a ceasefire agreement by year-end has decreased, with the market now pricing a 35.5% chance of an agreement by December 31, 2026, down from 36% previously. The probability for an agreement by October 31 stands at 17%, while the August 31 probability remains stable at 7.5%.
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