Prediction market platforms Polymarket and Myriad now assign a 27% implied probability to a Federal Reserve rate hike at the upcoming July 28-29 FOMC meeting. This probability jumped by double digits within just 24 hours, reaching as high as 46.5% on CME FedWatch before moderating. The federal funds rate currently sits at 3.5% to 3.75%, and a 25 basis point increase would push the upper bound to 4%. Rising oil prices and persistent inflation concerns are the primary catalysts behind this renewed market unease. For cryptocurrencies, a rate hike could trigger a sharp downside reaction in Bitcoin and Ethereum.
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