Oxford Economics projects U.S. PCE inflation at 3.6% year-over-year in July, down from 3.7% in June, yet still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Official July PCE data will be released on August 26, 2026. The research firm suggests that cooling services inflation and a stable labor market could lead the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates through 2026. Prediction markets for gold prices show decreased confidence in the yellow metal reaching higher price targets in August, as participants adjust expectations based on persistent inflationary pressures indicated by the PCE forecast. Market participants will closely monitor the official PCE release and Federal Reserve officials’ statements for potential shifts in monetary policy.
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