An unprecedented threat looms over companies that have made Bitcoin their primary treasury asset. Index giant MSCI could trigger a wave of forced selling reaching $10 to $15 billion in digital assets. Strategy, Michael Saylor’s company, tops the list with potential outflows of $2.8 billion.
MSCI’s Controversial Proposal
In October 2025, MSCI launched a public consultation that is shaking the crypto industry. The index provider proposes to exclude from its Global Investable Market indices all companies whose digital assets represent more than 50% of their total assets.
For MSCI, these companies resemble investment funds rather than operating businesses, a classification that would make them ineligible for inclusion in its benchmark indices. The final decision will be announced on January 15, 2026, with implementation scheduled for the February 2026 index review.
39 Companies in the Crosshairs
BitcoinForCorporations has established a preliminary list of 39 companies that could be affected by this measure, representing a combined float-adjusted market capitalization of $113 billion. This list includes 18 current MSCI index constituents and 21 non-constituents facing permanent exclusion.
Strategy dominates this list, representing 74.5% of the total impacted market capitalization at $84.1 billion. The company currently holds approximately 650,000 bitcoins, valued at over $61 billion, or more than 85% of its enterprise value.
The Catastrophic Financial Impact
According to JPMorgan estimates, Strategy could face outflows of $2.8 billion if excluded from MSCI indices. But this figure could climb to $8.8 billion if other index providers followed MSCI’s example, including notably:
- The Nasdaq 100
- The CRSP US Total Market Index
- Various Russell indices held by LSEG
Beyond simple stock sales, some analysts warn that the companies themselves could be forced to liquidate their crypto positions to meet margin or liquidity needs, which could bring crypto asset sales up to $15 billion in worst-case scenarios.
Massive Industry Opposition
The industry’s response was swift and coordinated. The petition launched by BitcoinForCorporations gathered 1,268 signatures, reflecting widespread concern. Signatories include Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of Strategy, and Simon Gerovich, President of Metaplanet.
In an official 12-page letter addressed to MSCI on December 10, 2025, Michael Saylor and Strategy CEO Phong Le formulated four main objections, describing the plan as « flawed » and potentially « harmful. »
An Arbitrary and Discriminatory Threshold
Strategy argues that digital asset treasury companies are operating businesses, not passive investment funds. The company compares its business model to Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and oil companies that concentrate their holdings in specific asset classes without facing similar restrictions.
Critics denounce the 50% threshold as discriminatory, arbitrary, and impractical. MSCI applies no similar exclusion rule to companies holding gold, bonds, or other concentrated assets.
BitcoinForCorporations argues that MSCI historically includes REITs despite their 75% concentration in real estate, as well as Berkshire Hathaway with its vast investment portfolio and mining companies holding significant gold reserves.
Systemic Consequences on Markets
The exclusion of these companies from MSCI indices would have profound repercussions on the financial ecosystem. Analysts estimate that passive funds hold between 18% and 30% of a large-cap company’s float. For digital asset treasury companies, which often finance their token purchases through stock sales, this situation is particularly problematic.
Turnover costs related to implementing this proposal are estimated between $50 and $225 million for all MSCI index families. These costs would result from increased tracking errors and unnecessary reconstitutions, likely to destabilize institutional mandates that typically operate with tight tracking tolerances of 20 to 50 basis points.
Michael Saylor’s Position
Strategy maintained that potential exclusion from MSCI indices « will make no difference. » Michael Saylor stated at a Binance event in Dubai that the company can survive a 95% drop in Bitcoin price with its current leverage of 1.11.
However, the threat extends far beyond Strategy. Other index providers could follow MSCI’s example, creating a domino effect that would affect the entire sector. Kaasha Saini, Head of Index Strategy at Jefferies, anticipates that most equity indices would likely adopt an approach similar to MSCI’s.
Alternative Solutions Proposed
Strategy and its allies advocate for MSCI to adopt an approach based on enhanced disclosure rather than outright exclusion. They also suggest applying a Limited Investability Factor (LIF) to gradually reduce the weight of companies with very high crypto treasuries, allowing markets to adjust more smoothly.
Strive Asset Management, whose CEO Matt Cole also submitted an opposition on December 6, believes MSCI should let the market decide whether companies holding Bitcoin should remain in passive investment portfolios.
A Decisive Test for the Crypto Industry
Beyond the numbers, MSCI’s decision represents a major test of index governance in the face of disruptive innovation. The stakes go beyond the simple inclusion or exclusion of specific companies. It’s about determining whether traditional financial infrastructures can accommodate new business models that challenge established categories.
With approximately $18.3 trillion in assets indexed to MSCI indices, the January 15, 2026 decision will have repercussions far beyond the 39 directly affected companies, potentially shaping the future of Bitcoin treasury strategies for years to come.
The consultation closes on December 31, 2025, and the industry holds its breath awaiting the verdict that could redefine the rules of the game for institutional Bitcoin adoption.
